The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts today, but so far the storms affecting the Netherlands Antilles are of a political nature. While in St. Maarten the DP Executive Council lost its majority and the NA has teamed up with now independent Island Council member Laveist to form a new coalition – possibly also with currently still DP Commissioner and Councilman Heyliger, in Bonaire Councilman Nicolaas broke ranks with UPB, went independent and helped the opposition faction ADB pass a motion of no confi dence in the UPB commissioners.

These developments come at a time when the islands are preparing to fi nalise the constitutional changes by dismantling the Netherlands Antilles for Curaçao and St. Maarten to become autonomous countries in the Dutch Kingdom and Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba to become special overseas entities of the Netherlands as the so-called BES islands. While the imminent change in government in St. Maarten should not affect the current process directly because the process is supported by all members of the Island Council, in Bonaire that was the main reason for the political crisis and the incoming coalition probably will organise a new referendum on what has been agreed on up to now. If that happens, it is likely to at least delay the process considerably or – in the event of a “no” vote – even halt it altogether, certainly for Bonaire.

What would then happen with Statia and Saba as part of the BES islands is not entirely clear either. All in all, prospects for making the January 1, 2010, target date for the new relations in the Kingdom to take effect are not getting any better. Even before the political turmoil started in St. Maarten late last year there were serious doubts in The Hague about the ability of the island to take on country status at this time and the developments of the past few months have not exactly been a big help. But the doubts about the target date also have to do with the trajectory for the necessary legislation in the Netherlands and other preparations, also in Curaçao. In addition, while the people on that island voted in favour of the current package in the recent referendum, the small margin and continued division in society do not make things any easier.

One of the problems is that the Antillean Parliament’s term runs out early next year and if the new relations cannot go into effect by then, there could be a vacuum. How to fi ll that vacuum by still dismantling the Antilles and its Central Government, but coming up with some kind of acceptable transitional arrangement most probably involving the Kingdom level, appears to be the main constitutional challenge ahead.